UFC 95 Picks

The UFC is back in London and back on Spike TV for their lastest card. UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson. What does that mean for you, my UFC picks column (clapping). Here we go

First off I would like to complament the UFC for putting this card on Spike and not making me $45 dollars for this glorified fight night. It's a good card but it's definitly not worth almost 50 bucks espacailly with the main event which I will get to later in this column. Stevenson has lost 2 of his last 3, Sanchez is cutting to 155 for the first time. It could be a good fight but it's not a Pay-Per-View main event. Big props to the UFC for not making us the MMA fans pay for his ok card, but not a PPV. It seems like it will end up similiar to UFC 80 or UFC 85 which didn't look like good cards but ended up really good. So who knows, but thanks Dana for not making me pay for this card, now if you could only do that next month for the Jardine vs. Jackson card.

Now on to picks, I'm not going to explain any of the undercard fights because frankly they all suck and I have little to know interest in any of the fights, but I am interested to see Brian Cobb but's thats it. So no undercard explainations. If you want to bitch about it I don't care leave a comment. Any way onto picks

Welterweight Bout: Paul Kelly over Troy Mandaloniz via TKO in Round 2

Lightweight Bout: Evan Dunham over Per Elkund via submission (arm bar) in Round 1

Heavyweight Bout: Neil Grove over Mike Cicsnolevicz via KO in Round 2

Heavyweight Bout: Steve Struve over Junior Dos Santos via submission (rear naked choke) - a mild upset here but Junior is overrated because he's just a boxer that caught a guy who underrated him and didn't take him where it would've been over just like that. So when Struve takes him down it will be over

Lightweight Bout: Brian Cobb over Terry Etim via submission (rear naked choke) in Round 3

On to the picks for the main card that we will acutally see, solid main card, not the best main card, but some very, very exciting fights, it kind of seems like Slumdog Millionare where if the fights are actors and the card is the movie then it has not many actors that have little resimes but together will make something great. This has the potential to be a very good main card (just not one worth paying for)

Welterweight Bout: Josh Koscheck (14-3-0) vs. Paulo Thiago (10-0-0)

This is a potentially dangerous fight for Koshcheck, we've seen it before a known guy vs. unknown guy and the known guy gets caught napping. Houston Alexander vs. Keith Jardine, Fabricio Werdum vs. Junior dos Santos, and almost Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes but Silva got his head back on after that head kick. But I don't think that will happen in this fight. But it is very dangerous for Koscheck.

Paulo Thiago is a BJJ Black Belt and a judo brown belt he also dangerous kicks out of his 10 wins he has one TKO and that was because he caused a knee injury with kicks. Reminds of a lot from what I've seen of TUF 8 runner-up Vinny Maghales. That leaves a bunch of trouble for Koscheck because he can't take him down or he'll probably get subbed, he can't clinch or he'll get thrown and put in a bad postition where'd he get subbed. So Koschecks has keep this a straight boxing match which I think he will do, he did against Yoshida where he would've had the same issues. But he kepted to his every improving boxing game and got a knock-out where he acutally knocked him out twice. So I'm liking Kos in this fight it will basically be a boring boxing match but that's how Koscheck has to win this fight and that's now he'll win.

Josh Koscheck over Paulo Thiago via KO in Round 2

Middleweight Bout:Chael Sonnon (23-9-1) vs. Demian Maia (10-0-0)

This is the fight I'm looking foward to the most on this card. Maia is easily the best at translating his jiu-jistu into MMA. He's 4-0 in the UFC all of his win by submission. Chael Sonnon is coming back to the UFC from the WEC where he would've been champ at Paulo Filho made weight in November. The winner climbs up really high in the middleweight rankings. Now everyone thinks this will be Maia clinching and throwing Sonnon down and subbing him in Round 1 but I don't think that is how this will go. Sonnon, stylistically is very similiar to Ed Herman who was giving Maia trouble before Maia caught him a triangle in Round 2. Sonnon can do it that if he sits in Maia's gaurd and avoids being submitted he can pound him to a desicion but I think Maia will eventaully catch him a triangle or an arm bar. But it won't be as easy as everyone thinks. So I got Maia in this one

Demian Maia over Chael Sonnon via submission (arm bar) in Round 3

Middleweight Bout: Nate Marquardt (27-8-2) vs. Wilson Gouveia (12-5-0)

This is another big fight as far as middleweight title contention goes. The winner of this will probably get the winner of the Sonnon-Maia fight then the winner of that will get the winner of the Bisping-Henderson fight and it's a big title shot tournament all this happening while Thales Leites gets his undeserved shot and Yushin Okami gets his rightful shot. On to this fight

Marquardt is 2-1 since losing to Anderson Silva, but his only lost was the BS point dedounction lost to Leites. Gouveia is 2-0 since dropping to 185 but he is huge for a middleweight and his gas tank wasn't great at 205, I doubt it will be good 185, he's never gone longer than 7 minutes in a fight a 185, now how will he do against a guy who will push his gas tank and bring the pressure for three rounds. I think if Marqaurdt survives the first round where Gouveia will probably come out like a bat out of hell and if Marquardt survives that than he will just take Gouveia down and overwelm him with ground-and-pound and submission attempts. So unless Gouveia catches Marquardt with his hands down early he will lose this fight. I expect Marquardt to take a desicion but he could get a submission if he gets Gouveia to roll over when he's pounding or something.

Nate Marquardt over Wilson Gouveia via desicion.

Weltwerweight Bout: Dan Hardy (20-6-0) vs. Rory Markham (16-4-0)

The UFC has this as the co-main event of this card, which a lot of people are bitching about. Watch a YouTube pick video they are. But I understand, now that Michael Bisping is getting so high in rankings, he caan't just fight in the UK has fight to fight anywhere anytime. Like he's fight this July in Vegas at UFC 100, but the UFC is trying to find a new Bisping who they can use to sell out the cards in London and I think that Dana White thinks that Dan Hardy is that guy. So it's basically a ploy for the fans watching on Senanta Sports in the UK and for the people going at the O2 so it looks like "ooh Dan Hardy a British star in the co-main event I better watch this" Type of deal. On to breaking it down

Now these two are both pretty much stand-up fighters, Markham has a little more wrestling abillity basically because he trains with all the great wrestlers in Bettendorf, Iowa. Hardy is probably a better kickboxer but Markham hits harder. I think Rory Markham is going to let his pride do the talking and keep this fight standing up where after about two rounds he'll be losing this fight, but Rory Markham has the big KO punch button in the middle of his face where he gets a hit a bunch and and fires back that's how he knocked Brodie Farber in July, he's was getting the living crap beat out him and he landed a mega head kick. YouTube it it's great really. And that's kind of how I see this fight going, Hardy will get Rory on the ropes and he will just fire back with a huge KO punch. So I pick Markham via KO

Rory Markham over Dan Hardy via KO in Round 3

Main Event: Lightweight: Bout Diego Sanchez (19-2-0) vs. Joe Stevenson (29-9-0)

A match up of Ultimate Fighters winners, 3rd one ever (Rashad Evans vs. Michael Bisping at UFC 78, Rashad Evans vs. Forrest Griffin at UFC 92) This isn't thag great of a main event but it could be worst. Very Fight Nightish. Stevenson has lost two of his last three even though the two losts are to the best two lightweights the UFC has in B. J. Penn and Kenny Florian. Sanchez is cutting to 155 for reasons I don't know. He was a fight or two away from a title shot at 170 had he not gotten hurt and beat Alves then beat someone like Jon Fitch or Josh Koscheck he would in line for a title. Also had he stayed at 170 he would probably be fighting Thiago Alves here, which I would pay for if I had too. It really makes no sense to me.

Ok now I'll quit crying and break this fight down. Both have very good ground games, Sanchez great wrestler, very good jiu-jistu, and vicisious ground and pound. Stevenson, supposedly a BJJ Black Belt under Robert Drysdale I don't believe him, a BJJ Black belt doesn't roller over right when he gets mounted by Kenny Florian. But the difference in this fight is Sanchez's clear striking advantage. He's got great kicks, vicisious knees, and heavy hands. Watch his fight with Luigi Fioravanti he picks him apart on the feet and ends destroying him with strikes. The only way Sanchez loses this fight is if the 37lb weight cut totally destroys his gas tank which it very well might. But think Diego will finish this fight pretty quickly. So I like Diego Sanchez

Diego Sanchez will beat Joe Stevenson via TKO in Round 1

Here are some quick predictions for the post fight awards like KO of the Night, Fight of the Night, etc.

Fight of the Night: Chael Sonnon vs. Demain Maia
KO of the Night: Rory Markham
Submission of the Night: Demain Maia

That is all I got, enjoy the fights, enjoy the rest of your weekend, have watching the Oscars. I'll be back next week with another column, something NBA or NFL combine related and my WEC picks.

So enjoy your weekend and peace out